As I discussed in my overview of the election, the gubernatorial races are the second most important (after Secretary of State). The races that are competitive are:
Lean Rep:
- Georgia - Stacey Abrams
Tossup:
- Arizona - Katie Hobbs
- Kansas - Laura Kelly
- Nevada - Steve Sisolak
- Oregon - Tina Kotek
- Wisconsin - Tony Evers
Lean Dem:
- Maine - Janet Mills
- Michigan - Gretchen Whitmer
- New Mexico - Michelle Lujan Grisham
- Pennsylvania - Josh Shapiro
From the DGA (via email):
Some of the most competitive states we’re looking at are states like Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In those states, extreme GOP candidates for governor have pushed conspiracies about the 2020 election and have promised to restrict reproductive rights. In Pennsylvania, where the governor has the power to appoint the secretary of state, Doug Mastriano has all but guaranteed he’ll select someone just as radical as he is, who would not have certified Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. He’s also said banning abortion is his top priority if elected. In Wisconsin, GOP candidate Tim Michels has promised to uphold the state’s archaic abortion ban that doesn’t allow for exceptions for rape and incest. In Michigan, Tudor Dixon has said she would enact an abortion ban that makes no exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother.
On offense, our most competitive races are Georgia and Arizona where we have two powerhouse Democratic candidates in Stacey Abrams and Katie Hobbs. Both are taking on extreme Republicans,
If you view this election as primarily about retaining our democracy, as I do, then Georgia going to Kemp is ok because he has shown that he puts country before party. By the same measure, Kansas is not going to vote for a Democrat for President. And Oregon & New Mexico will be strongly Democratic in the presidential. Too strong for a Republican governor to pull any tricks.
By the same measure, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin are absolutely critical to win as the Republican candidates in each of these races is a big lie proponent. If those states elect Republicans to the Governorship & Secretary of State, we could well see those states throw out the vote in 2024 and hand their state's votes to the Republican candidate.
Gubernatorial candidates tend to get enough in donations, but if you want to donate, a little more is useful. Based on the combination of competitiveness and how critical each state is, the following are the key races. And remember, money donated directly to the candidate has a lot more oomph.
- Arizona - Katie Hobbs
- Michigan - Gretchen Whitmer
- Nevada - Steve Sisolak
- Pennsylvania - Josh Shapiro
- Wisconsin - Tony Evers
Even more useful is if you reside in any of these states - volunteer. Walk door to door. Call people. Best of all, talk to friends & family about why they need to vote (and for who).
