Colorado is officially a purple-ish state but it's more accurate to say it's blue-ish where a Republican could still win statewide. If the planets align perfectly. They're not aligning this election.
What I find interesting is that water & homelessness will unquestionably be the two biggest issues in Colorado over the next couple of years. And we've hit the point where applying band-aids to it will no longer suffice. These will dominate the legislature and be a major part of the Governor's and Attorney General's job. And it's getting almost no discussion.
The only case I have seen of this getting attention is from Travis Nelson, the Democratic candidate running for SD-35. He's challenging his opponent to a paintball match followed by a discussion on water issues. Kudos to Travis for both innovative marketing and seeing that water is issue #1.
- Governor - Jared Polis has done a superb job, is widely respected, and is going to coast to re-election.
- Secretary of State - Jena Griswold has also done a superb job as a very competent SoS. Her opponent Pam Anderson was first running as a competent candidate who did not embrace the big lie. So a strong competitor. But Pam recently embraced the big lie and this probably makes this a strong win for Jena. Probably.
- Attorney General - Phil Weiser has rolled up endorsements not only from every Democrat, but from numerous Republicans. He's widely respected and should have a strong win.
- Treasurer - Dave Young has done a good job but this position tends to be invisible. If someone wants to ticket split or just reflexively vote Republican, this is the place to do it. On the plus side, he's running against Lang Sias who loses race after race. So probably Democratic but this is more a party line vote than a vote for the person.
- Senator - Michael Bennet is respected, not controversial, and has done a good job. While he won't win with as big a number as Jared, he'll do very well.
- U.S. House districts 1 - 6 will all be easily held by the incumbent. (No matter how much you may detest Lauren Boebert, a majority of voters in her district like her.)
- CD-7 - Brittany Pettersen has this in the bag. The district leans Democratic and her opponent is a non-entity.
- CD-8 - This baby is competitive. Maybe the most competitive in the country. It has a clear difference between Yadira Caraveo [D] & Barbara Kirkmeyer [R]. Both are very good campaigners and the race will come down to what the voters are most concerned about. Caraveo is moderately liberal while Kirkmeyer is way far right but pretending to be moderate.
- State House - will stay strongly Democratic
- State Senate - this could flip to Republican control. There are 7 competitive seats and we Democrats need to win 3 of them to retain control (and more would be better). Odds are this stays Democratic but those odds are say 60:40 so it could...
So what races matter in Colorado? CD-8 matters more than everything else put together. I'd take winning CD-8 and losing SoS & the state Senate over the reverse. So every bit of extra effort in the state should be focused on helping Yadira Caraveo. With a little bit of help for Jena Griswold.
As to the state Senate candidates - they need to be out going door to door every weekend all weekend long. And weekdays in the early evening. That's how state legislative races are won. If all 7 of them do a good job on the door to door, then 3 of those races should be won at a minimum.
Election night will be good in Colorado. CD-8 (and to a degree SoS, AG, & Treasurer) will determine if it's a great night.
