I recently sent an email to Senators Bennet & Hickenlooper and Representative Neguese (expressing my support to do everything we can for Ukraine). I received an immediate auto-reply from Bennet's and Neguese's offices. But a month later, still no reply from Hick's.
It seems like a small thing. But it's these small tells where we can first guess as to what someone will or won't do. An auto-reply is trivial to set up. But fundamentally it's primary purpose is to make you feel supportive of the congressperson you contacted. Fundamentally it's designed to increase the vote for that individual in the next election. And if you won't run again, then there's no value in it.
Now Hick in the past has waited to the last possible second to then decide to run. But I think at present his plan is to not run. He's been a business owner, Mayor, & Governor. In all those positions he's been the executive in charge. It's not surprising that he would find the Senate a lot less interesting.
And when he ran all the Democrats in Colorado asked of him was beat Cory Gardner and be a reliable Democratic vote. He's fulfilled his part of that ask. So job done.
But... then how ill replacing him play out. Here's how I see it.
Jason Crow will run for his Senate seat, and win it. He's been incredibly impressive in his job so far and with his national security efforts in the present environment, he's exactly what people will want in a Senator.
Jared Polis has the same issue as Hick, he prefers the executive role. Rather than Senate he's shoot for President (I hope!), Vice President, or Secretary of something (it's not as prestigious but Secretary of Commerce would be an awesome fit).
Jena Griswold would like the Senate seat. But her experience will not sell as well for it. And at the same time, her experience is perfect for governor. So I think she'll run for governor in 4 years.
DeGette & Neguese are both creatures of the House (I mean that as a compliment). I don't see either being able to turn that into a Senate run that succeeds.
Weiser is impressive, but the anti-trust work he's involved in takes time. And so in 3 - 4 years saying it's all "in process" is not something that can propel him to either Governor or Senate. Now if in the next 3 - 4 years he gets a very impressive anti-trust win, then he's a major contender for either seat.
And Young is doing fine as treasurer, but there's nothing interesting going on there and that means no visible record to run on.
And so, based on no auto-reply, this is my prediction for the upcoming shuffle in major Colorado elected positions in four years.
