Liberal and Loving It

The September Debate

This was easily the best debate so far. Not just because it was a single night with everyone, but the content was great. It was a substantive debate where the moderators managed to keep them on track while staying in the background. Kudos to both ABC and the candidates.

The Winners

Beto O'Rourke really stood out. Partially because of his talking directly & honestly on gun control. But on other topics too. It's not enough to move him up to the mid tier, but it should bounce him up a bit.

The Democratic Party. It was a really good debate where the candidates disagreed without tearing each other down (except Castro at one point). And they had substantive discussions on the issues.

The Losers

Joe Biden throughout the night was tentative, forgetful, and had trouble expressing himself oftentimes. He's clearly past his prime. On the flip side, a lot of people judge him on a curve and so by the measure of he didn't fuck up too bad - say he did fine.

The economy got little mention, mostly around trade with China. Granted if it did get appropriate time, some other critical subject would then have no time. But in the next debate they need to spend time of the structure of our economic system, who it favors, will it work going forward, and how to handle the upcoming recession. And that will be a great discussion, not only for Warren & Sanders, but Yang has some really good insights there. And the rest can then argue for not changing it significantly.

Some Thoughts

Corey Booker - why isn't he doing better in the polls? By any measure he should at least be at the top of the 2nd tier. But he's not. I do think he's the likely Vice President for anyone except Kamela Harris (no one will try an all African American ticket).

Andrew Yang - for someone who keeps saying he's the opposite of Donald Trump, starting off with a game show give-away was trite and diminished him.

Kamala Harris - I think she remains the compromise candidate if we go in to the convention with it being Warren vs. Biden and neither can get 50%+1. And she did well for this position by spending most of her time taking on Trump.

Biden is not in the lead - Yes Biden is the front runner. But Warren & Sanders combined poll numbers beat Biden handily. And while a lot has been said about their voters being pretty distinct demographics, if one of them drops out and endorses the other - that moves the remaining one ahead of Biden.

I like this system a lot better than Iowa and New Hampshire get to pick the final 2 or 3. The debates, the polls, the fundraising - between all three we are getting a good picture of the candidates and if they can be competitive. It is very small d democratic in that it is being decided by those that are taking an interest at this time. Granted that's a small subset of the voters, but so are the primary voters in Iowa & New Hampshire. And this approach is open to everyone.

Why We Have so Many Authoritarian Leaders Now

I heard someone asking the other day why we have so many authoritarian leaders now. It's not just Trump, it's Hungary, Poland, Turkey, India, China, Brazil, Philippines, and more. Not that long ago liberalism & democracy were on the rise. Now it's authoritarianism and semi-dictatorship.

Of course it is. Because the future looks grim, people see that the system is rigged for the rich with no chance for the 99%, and the jobs and way of life people thought was forever is disappearing.

When things are good people have no interest in strong men. In both Reagan's and Clinton's re-election when the economy was booming, the future looked brilliant, and we were talking about the end of history - a candidate like Trump would have been laughed off the stage.

But now, when the world is changing in ways that harm most people, when the system is deeply rigged in favor of the powerful, and when the mainstream candidates are tools of that system and will continue it - then a crazy person like Trump, Duerte, etc. is a vote for a small chance vs. no chance.

When the present system means you're absolutely fucked, burning the place down is a reasonable alternative.

And this is why I think Biden could well lose to Trump in the general. Because he promises a return to the system were most people are unequivocally fucked. He will be kind, caring, & respectful. He will fight racism, sexism, etc. But he will also continue a system were the vast majority of people are economically screwed.

Warren (and Sanders) are the two that can fight Trump on the battlefield of making life better for people. And in a positive way while Trump does so in a negative way.

The Democratic Primary is now a Three Person Race

Ok, there's 10 in the September primary, but only three of them have an over 1% chance of winning the nomination. Warren, Biden, & Harris.

Sanders has this locked in band of support of 12% - 18%. He can run to the convention and he'll have support in that band. Won't drop below 12, but won't go over 18.

So Warren has the progressive vote. She's a force of nature with a great story, incredibly compelling arguments, and talks to the frustrations people have - with an effective positive solution.

Biden is the establishment candidate, promising a return to Obama and to some degree (Bill) Clinton. Let's return to a system that favors the wealthy, with a decent person at the top who tries to tweak the system to favor the majority of people a teeny tiny bit more.

And Harris is the compromise between the two of them. Politically she's in the middle between the two. She has the best polling of all the middle candidates. And as a woman of color, she checks off two of the boxes.

And that's it. A few are hoping to qualify for the October debate - but why. Getting in by the skin of your teeth isn't a road to winning. We should see more of these dropping out over the next couple of weeks. Some because the funding dries up, some because they're smart enough to know they have no chance.

And my pick for the nomination? Warren/Yang. My guess for the nomination? Warren/Booker.