We've had months of campaigning, and polls to measure the impact. We've had months of fundraising and the numbers to show the accomplishments. And we've had the first debate.
So where are we?
The following are the top tier in the race, ordered by what I think their standing is at present:
- Kamala Harris
- Elizabeth Warren
- Joe Biden
The following are in the second tier, possible but very unlikely, in order:
- Corey Booker
- Steve Bullock
- Bernie Sanders
The following are not going to win, but they'll be around for a bit:
- Pete Buttigieg
- Julián Castro
- Beto O'Rourke (maybe)
That's it. Everyone will likely hang on until the next debate as there's no reason not to. And each will be working to pull a Kamala Harris (watch out Joe). The odds of it making enough of a difference are so small though that it's not going to happen.
So we're actually down to 9 candidates - at most. That's a reasonable number this far out.
