Liberal and Loving It

I Think the DNC Debate Criteria Are Working Quite Well

Ok, first off there's no perfect way to decide who's in the debate. And even if there was a plan I felt was "perfect," you would disagree.

But what they did is working well.

First off, the combination of criteria was if anything a little too easy, but we ended up with exactly 20 qualifiers. And the criteria were spot on. How you are in the polls to measure can you generate interest. And can you get grassroots support measured by fundraising. That pairing worked.

Some are upset that some Senators had to struggle to meet his. Why? If a U.S. Senator can't meet those criteria, then they're not a strong candidate outside of their state. Same for Governors.

And yes we got Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson included. Both showed on the debate stage that they are way out of their league. But who are the powers that be to say only politicians who meet a required level of experience should be let in? We're the Democratic party. And so we're open.

And then we had the debate. And this gave us a chance to measure by another standard, each candidate. First, which of them can take on Donald Trump because it's going to be a brutal fight. And second, can you see in what they say and how they present themselves, a president?

And we're already down to 9 candidates at this point (the rest are dead, they just haven't admitted it yet). By the fall we'll likely be down to 4 or 5. That's a very manageable number and that's when most people start to pay attention.

So well done DNC (that's something you rarely hear).

Who's Truly Still in the Race?

We've had months of campaigning, and polls to measure the impact. We've had months of fundraising and the numbers to show the accomplishments. And we've had the first debate.

So where are we?

The following are the top tier in the race, ordered by what I think their standing is at present:

1. Kamala Harris
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Joe Biden

The following are in the second tier, possible but very unlikely, in order:

1. Corey Booker
2. Steve Bullock
3. Bernie Sanders

The following are not going to win, but they'll be around for a bit:

1. Pete Buttigieg 
2. Julián Castro
3. Beto O'Rourke (maybe)

That's it. Everyone will likely hang on until the next debate as there's no reason not to. And each will be working to pull a Kamala Harris (watch out Joe). The odds of it making enough of a difference are so small though that it's not going to happen.

So we're actually down to 9 candidates - at most. That's a reasonable number this far out.

Debate 1 Second Night

Here's my take on it last night

Winner

Harris owned it. She knifed Biden so smoothly in a way that he couldn't really counteract. She came across as more than qualified to be president. And she also came across as the one that could best take down Trump.

Buttigieg made a good impression. Mostly he showed that he deserved to be on the stage, which is a win. But his big moment was when he took direct responsibility for the police issues in South Bend and said flat out he wasn't able to fix it. I think that honesty will help him a lot.

No Change

Sanders is what was expected. He didn't improve his standing, but neither was it hurt.

Losers

Biden was by far the biggest loser. He went in to this as the clear leader and no problems or criticisms had hurt him. And then Swalwell brought up his age, with a smile but in a way that will have some impact. And the Harris hammered him. It's now clear that he's in the fight of his life for the nomination.

Yang & Williamson made it very clear they should never have been on the stage. Williamson at least had some interesting comments (wacky but interesting). Yang wasn't even there.

The other four – totally forgettable. All except Hick had one moment where they made a good contribution to the debate (Bennet's was another knife into Biden). But they're uninteresting and unremarkable next to Harris, Sanders, & Biden.

Hick: Props to Hick as he was honest about his views and his record. Some of that was phrasing ("Colorado" was the first to legalize marijuana leaving out his opposition), but he was honest.

Bennet: Bennet on the other hand gave a very false impression of himself as someone who fights for the people. What a crock.

First Debate, First Night

First off while I think it started off as candidates making speeches instead of answers, and often on very different topics, it then got good. And then really good. They challenged each other, they talked through policy, and they kept it professional and a discussion of issues. I'm really proud of the debate.

Winners

Biggest winner is by far Castro. Before the debate he was in the 1% with everyone figuring he's toast. He's now a contender.

Next is Warren. She entered as someone of clear presidential caliber and in the debate she showed that is well deserved. Did she dominate every minute? No. That would be impossible with 10 candidates. But she validated her leading position.

Booker is the last big winner. He was in so many discussions and in each came across as worthy of being president. I don't know if he improved his standing (strong second tier), but he definitely maintained his standing.

Losers

Biggest by far is O'Rourke. He seemed clueless and in over his head at times. Definitely not presidential caliber. He's got good enough standing at present that this won't kill his campaign, but if in the next debate the same thing happens, then it's over for him.

Klobuchar under performed. She came across clearly as smart, knowledgeable, and I think would make a good president. And she had some great zingers. But she never soared. This has been her problem all along and it didn't change.

Gabbard basically wasn't there. She only lit up on defense issues. Her campaign is over. Too bad, she's really smart and knows defense well. Maybe she'll become Secretary of Defense.

Delaney clearly didn't belong on the stage with the others.

Inslee, Ryan, de Blasio – None of them had a moment. They all had an occasional contribution, but none did anything to move them out of the 1% category.