Where do we place our defensive line?

In the Battle of the Bulge (WWII) the allies first priority was to hold the shoulders (edges) of the German advance while falling back as needed in the pocket. Holding where they must while temporarily retreating where necessary was key to minimizing the impact of the German offensive.

This election is going to be bad news for us Democrats. We need to minimize our losses. And that means we have to put our resources into the very close races that matter the most. Not who we like best. Not based on how we wish we still had the momentum of '08. We need to follow the model laid out in The Blueprint where we make a dispassionate decision based on the numbers.

First off, I think our most important seats this election are the state level executive positions, for two reasons. First the U.S. House is almost certainly going to flip and even if the U.S. Senate does not flip, it will be even less effective than it is now. This means we are on our own mitigating the impact of the recession. To do so the two most critical offices are Governor and Treasurer.

Treasurer is key because having an inept Republican with goofy financial ideas investing our money will lose the state money, potentially a lot of money. Dollars drive most everything and having Stapleton piss away money is the same as passing a tax cut. Fortunately we're in good shape on these two races.

Second is state legislative races. Control of the state House & Senate is gigantic. But the key point is control – put in the effort required to retain control. Extra seats are nice and let's take what we can get, but it's not more important than the remaining items below. So we need to look at how each race is shaking out, which competitive ones are required to retain control, and can we credibly win those – and then put our efforts in on those if we have a decent chance.

Third, I think the federal seats we can hold come next – because there's no term limits. In most years incumbency helps a lot (not so much this year). And so, we want to keep the Gang of Four in their seats. But we have to do so where we have a chance. My earlier plan was to donate heavily to Bennet and Markey and spend weekends going door to door in Longmont for both. But if many of us do that and they both then lose by 2% instead of 4%, but Ed Perlmutter and John Salazar each lose by 100 votes, we did a very stupid thing.

Fourth and final is Secretary of State and Attorney General. Yes both are important. Yes having a partisan hack in either hurts the state. But the level of damage is less than what we face with the other seats. And both will be open seats again, AG in 4 years and SoS in 8. (It is particularly hard to put this last because we have superb people for these jobs in Bernie and Stan.)

So how should we approach this?

1. Make a donation to Cary Kennedy.
2. Wait on the rest of your donations. The polls this month will start to lock in what the real odds for each candidate is. Donate small amounts for those you really like, but save the majority of your money for September 30.
3. If the gubernatorial race gets competitive (which could well happen), then be prepared to go all in on Hick. We're in a world of hurt economically and that office will have more impact than every other office together. On the flip side, if Hick retains a strong majority give him your support, but not your money.
4. If treasurer remains close, donate substantially there.
5. If the House and/or Senate control hangs on one or two close races, donate the rest there.
6. You have a couple of bucks left over? Ok, take a very dispassionate look at the Gang of Four races. Donate to the ones where the numbers have them tied or our guy in a lead well within the margin of error. Cry over the others.
7. Still some bucks left? Ok Ms. Moneybags, same thing with Bernie, Stan, and any additional close state legislative races. If they're close, kick in some money.

Being rational about this sucks. If I got to give a free win to one candidate it would be Betsy Markey. I think Bernie Buescher and Stan Garnett are both superb. (And I have donated a little to all three.) But just as in '08 we won just about every close and sort-of close race, this year is clearly looking to give the Republicans most of the close and sort-of close races.

And to those Democrats who say speaking like this helps the Republicans – bullshit. Looking realistically at the situation and acting to minimizing the damage helps us Democrats. Shooting the messenger helps the Republicans. Donating to someone we like but who can't win this year may make us feel good today, but it's not going to help the country.