Probably the best measure of support for each candidate at this point (as there are no polls) is to look at their contributions. There is a very high correlation between contributions and support. To make this a better measure of support, I do not count candidate or family donations. I also do not count matching funds. So this is donations raised from the community. I also think the number of donations is a better indicator than total dollars because no matter how rich, each person has just 1 vote.
A couple of notes before showing the data:
- Almost every form submitted has math errors. One candidate (all names withheld to protect the guilty) has a total of two contributors in their first form for $25.00 and $20.00. And they then list the total as $40.00. Another lists self contributions of $1,000.00 + $100.00 which totals $1,000.00. A third candidate's 8/13 form just makes no sense at all. This may be why the city budget is a mess, the council has no idea how to add.
- And clearly the City Clerk is not checking the math on these forms.
- Why are half the forms scanned in sideways? And one page of Angelique's is upside down - please explain that to me.
- Susan Peterson's 9/24 form does not list her contributors so her total number of contributors is wrong - it should be much higher. (And again, why did the city clerk not catch this?)
- Do individual contributions include candidate contributions? Apparently half the candidates think so and the other half do not. (The form is not clear although I read it as not.)
- Most of The Usual Suspects candidates donate to each other. I guess it's a way they cooperatively help boost each other's matching funds. I wonder if they trade checks evenly?
- Why is no one using Excel? Get with it guys - computers make your life easier. And with your atrocious math skills, I think you should view using Excel as a must do.
- Update: I've received emails from several candidates that they do give the clerk Excel files. So some candidates are using Excel (and some are not as some of the scanned documents are hand written). But there are errors in the Excel sourced ones like what contributions are candidate contributions.
- And why does the City Clerk not put the Excel files up on the web?
- Ok, so keep in mind that the numbers I have are not exactly right, because I had to make assumptions as to what was going on (I usually assumed the individual numbers were right and the totals were wrong.
So what does this tell us? I see a couple of things:
- Things do not look good for everyone to the right of Adam Massey, with Susan Peterson probably going to the left of him once I get her numbers and Shawn Coleman being an exception. Among the politically active the rest just don't have traction.
- Macon & Susan are looking the strongest with clearly the most contributors by far and strong totals too.
- Eric Rutherford is a major contender (will update The Big Line to reflect this) - he's first in total bucks (not counting his own money) and fourth in contributors.
- Alan O'Hashi and Philip Hernandez are serious contenders (will update The Big Line to reflect this). In the case of Alan this is a giant improvement over the special election - good job.
- Crystal Gray is not looking good. Yes she's an incumbent but that should have made it almost effortless to raise money. And if you subtract the contributions from the other anointed candidates, she could drop below Larry Quilling (or as Larry would probably prefer to say, he's looking stronger than Crystal).
So there you have it. Money isn't everything but it is an incredibly strong indicator.
