This is my guess for the odds of each candidate running for a Boulder City/County seat. This has nothing to do with my preferences for a candidate (boy does it not!), it's what I think the odds of each winning is. I also will not go worse than 100:1 because that is just mean.
Additional candidate information is available here.
Ok this includes all the newspaper endorsements as well as the environmental groups. We're getting down to the wire here as ballots were supposedly dropped in the mail today
There is another Big Line at RLB and he makes a couple of good points, especially on how lazy Adam Massey is. I disagree with a number of his points, and he is wrong on some points, but it is another take on the odds. It will be interesting to see which of us is more accurate.
Final tweaks - the election results are in tonight at 7:00.
City Council ('07)
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught driving a SUV, on open space, running over prairie dogs, with a Bush/Cheney bumper sticker on the back of the car.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been in all the right groups, been on all the right boards & committes, etc. All three newspapers endorsed her. And her fundraising shows incredible support. She has dotted every i and crossed every t to be the number 1 annointed candidate.
Angelique Espinoza (3-1) : Angelique is the best politician (I mean that as a compliment) in this race. She has received endorsements from almost everyone - by selling them on her. I would not be surprised to see her come in first.
Lisa Morzel (3-1) : Strong (strident at times) environmentalist so disliked by the business community but loved by the environmentalists. And she seems to have not been a target of any of the recent mud-slinging. She appears to be 2nd or 3rd on most environmentalist's lists and that should be enough to guarantee a win.
Ken Wilson (4-1) : He won the special election and got endorsements from all the environmental groups. While he got the Camera endorsement, he only got an honorable mention from the Weekly and nothing from the Daily. The Washington School NIMBYs are mad at him - but that's not much of a vote.
Shawn Coleman (5-1) : Shawn seems to be doing everything right and he impresses virtually everyone he talks to (aside from the occasional wingnut). Shawn is not first on many lists but he seems to be on most everyone's list.
The race - These 7 are competing for the remaining 2 seats. All have a good chance at winning but will need to work for it.
Crystal Gray (8-1) : Incumbent, all three newspapers, & PB endorsement, should be another guaranteed win. But she is putting in a pretty minimal effort and hasn't answered some of the Camera questions. Doing terrible in fund-raising. Hard to believe but Crystal could lose.
Alan O'Hashi (8-1) : Alan got a very strong endorsement from the Boulder Weekly and this puts his impressive record in front of everyone. And he has a very strong base of support. Alan is the most likely vote for people tired of the same old candidates. And a lot of people are donating to Alan - a lot!
Matthew Applebaum (9-1) : Matt clearly has support and high positives - but also high negatives. Matt knows he is the most qualified (and he is in some ways) and that both helps & hurts him some. I am hearing more and more about his arrogance (negative) and his fundraising sucks.
Eric Rutherford (10-1) : Boy did I have Eric wrong - he has some of the strongest fundraising of any candidate both in number of contributors and total dollars. He's clearly resonating with a lot of people. And he's it for the "conservative" (what the rest of the country would call slightly liberal) vote - no vote splitting from his base. But still, hard to win as the "developer" candidate.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Macon is a strident environmentalist and he is one of only 3 candidates that when people tell me they met him for the first time recently, they follow it up with and they are not voting for him. He clearly has a lot of support in the environmental community but he does not seem to do well outside of that core.
Larry Quilling (15-1) : Oh wow - endorsement from the Daily and an honorable mention from the Weekly. Larry is now definitely in play. He's also a Fairview parent and considered a nice guy by every other parent there that knows him - that is worth votes. Larry is the obvious pro-environmental vote for people tired of the usual suspects. That could be enough.
Eugene Pearson (15-1) : Eugene has the PLAN Boulder, Weekly and Daily nods. But to win he needs to pull in more votes and I have not seen him resonating elsewhere. If he wins it will be by the skin of his teeth.
A for effort - very unlikely (with 7 openings I won't say impossible) but the odds are not favorable.
Philip Hernandez (23-1) : Philip is working at it and his fundraising remains impressive. And he's a very nice person and that helps. But no endorsements - that probably ends it for Phil.
Adam Massey (34-1) : RLB make a very compelling point that Adam is basically doing nothing and assuming a B.O.C. endorsement will do the job. That is unlikely to be sufficient in this election. And people tend to get annoyed at candidates that take their vote for granted. No Camera or Weekly endorsement either (he did get the Daily). The Realtor's endorsement is the final nail in his coffin.
Susan Peterson (41-1) : Got the PLAN Boulder endorsement. But she missed one forum and has missed a number of the Camera blogs. She may be hoping to coast in on that endorsement and that is a questionable approach. No newspaper endorsements - that probably ends it for Susan.
Not going to happen - trying but not getting traction
Kathryn Kramer (49-1) : No base, no compelling spiel, no PB/TSC endorsement. Kathryn cares but with no base to build on, there is no core of votes to build from.
Tom Riley (49-1) : A smart, thoughtful, articulate candidate who raised a respectable amount of money in the special election - and placed 12th out of 14. Tom does not resonate with voters for some reason. If he can fix that, a big if, then he has a chance. But he needs to figure out how to connect.
Philip Bradley (60-1) : No reason to vote for Philip and very little experience of actually working for a living. On top of that he clearly did not work that hard in the special election. And almost no donations means he's not finding support among the politically active.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Ok, Rob is definitely putting in a serious effort. And it is resonating a bit with the very disaffected, but even in Boulder there aren't many votes there.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Seth is also putting in a serious effort. However, he does not appear to be gaining any traction.
Out to lunch - these candidates are on the ballot but don't seem to be actually running.
Nabil Karkamaz (95-1) : Has a website but no funds raised (so far), no yard signs, no appearance of a campaign organization. And he is not bothering to answer the Daily Camera questions. But he is at least putting in a small effort.
Andrew Harrison (100-1) : His website is a blank MySpace page. Is there a stronger way he could say he isn't going to put any real effort in?
Out - withdrawn from the race
Eric Bodenstab: Eric had his heart in the right place but I guess realized he did not have a chance this election. Here's hoping he gets on some city board and gets the experience and connections to run successfully in the future.
There is another person blogging their own take on The Big Line here at RealLiberalBoulder. Very snarky, lots of typos (and spells my name wrong) but hey, they're blogging about the race and that's great.
District Attorney ('08)
Stan Garnett (2-1) : The only declared candidate and he has endorsements from most of the usual suspects. He's a terrible choice but unless we see a strong opponent he will walk into office (like he did for his BVSD seat).
Ingrid Bakke (OFF) : Stan managed to talk her out of running.
CO-2 House Race ('08)
Joan Fitz-Gerald (3-1) : A political powerhouse in this area for awhile and a really good politician. She remains the one to beat. I met with Joan for coffee.
Jared Polis (3-1) : A very strong candidate with essentially unlimited funds and the smarts to not use his own funds but instead raising money very well. Definitely the most net-literate of the candidates by far. I met with Jared for lunch.
Will Shafroth (6-1) : Will is running a good campaign and his fundraising is impressive. But his real hope is that Joan and Jared beat each other up enough that he then glides by. I met with Will for coffee.
