Ok, every day there is post after post about how Bush is planning on starting a war with Iran. This is not going to happen - at least not in the next couple of months. Here's why:
- There is a lot of planning that goes in to an attack like this. Even one that is purely an air attack. Word would get out based on the number of people involved.
- The military is breaking. Adding a war in Iran would so overwhelm the military as to devastate it. Some, a few at least, in the top of the military will follow their oath and report what is planned to senior Democrats in Congress.
- This would almost certainly lead to an immediate impeachment of Bush and Cheney. It doesn't matter what excuse he used, the country would demand his immediate removal. And while Cheney may be too far gone to realize this, Bush clearly understands that the Democrats have real power now.
- Yes there are 3 carrier groups in or headed to the Persian Gulf. We're in a war there. And who knows what else could happen there. But that is not enough to even take out all of Iran's nuclear facilities on top of the Iraq missions they are flying.
- Update: From a comment An attack on Iran would cause panic at the pumps, and the market would enact massive price increases. The Republicans know that they cannot survive injuriously high gasoline prices unless the disruption is very short lived -- say two weeks or so. And viewing the debacle in Iraq, they now know that any attack on Iran would entail long term hostilities.
The administration is not sure where they are going to find all of the 20,000 troops for the surge escalation. And all of their efforts are focused on that now. I'm not saying Bush wouldn't like the option to attack Iran - but he doesn't have that option.
