First off, I am not involved in any campaign and I watch what happens most days in the campaigning here. But I'm not an expert and I am not privy to all the little things happening. Also, I am a liberal and a Democrat so I am biased.
So here is where I see the 2006 election heading in Colorado.
The biggest event is the numerous self inflicted stupid mistakes Bob Beauprez (R) has made. It's as though the guy is trying to lose by as much as possible. And he is not just pushing everyone in the middle to the Democrat side, but he is also upsetting a lot of the base. You know you are in trouble when your own base starts to call you Both Ways Bob.
Facing Beauprez is Bill Ritter who is an ex District Attorney and a Catholic pro-life candidate. As a Democrat who has fought crime and is pro-life, it's hard for the Republicans to find a wedge issue anyways. (Yes, the Colorado Democratic party does a good job of not having a litmus test for candidates and taking the view that liberalism is what is critical, not any specific issue.)
The Lt. Governor with BWB (as Both Ways Bob is now called in Colorado) is of course a fundamentalist who equates gay marriage with bestiality. Normally a smart move when balancing a ticket and having the unimportant half play to the base. But with BWB hurting himself every time he speaks, Janet Rowland is now speaking out more trying to at least keep the base. But at the same time she also sends the middle running for the Democratic side.
The bottom line for this race is not only that baring a gigantic problem on the Democratic side that the Democrats have it, but that this race will not draw Republicans to the polls. So it helps all Democratic candidates state-wide.
U.S. Senate - there is no Senate seat open this election in Colorado. In another 2 years Wayne Allard's seat opens up and as one of Time Magazine's 5 least effective senators I sure hope he gets replaced. Our other senator is Ken Salazar so odds are good for a Democratic win here in 2008.
U.S. Congress - First the easy ones. CD-1 (Denver) is a walk for DeGette(D), CD-2 (Boulder - where I live) is a walk for Udall (D), CD-3 (Western Slope) has historically been a safe Republican seat but in 2004 John Salazar (D) won it and will win again this year. CD-6 (suburban Denver) is Colorado's national embarrassment, Tom Tancredo (R). Unfortunately, it seems he does represent the view of his constituents (a scary thought) as he too will win in a walk. To use Huey Long's statement, the only way any of these will lose is if they are found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
CD-4 - This is Colorado's other major embarrassment on the federal scene Marilyn Musgrave (R) and she represents Northern Colorado including Ft. Collins and Greeley. Her main push in Washington has been a federal amendment to outlaw gay marriage but she also has never met a corporate giveaway she hasn't liked. Unlike Tancredo, her constituents are a much more discerning lot and she has won both elections by narrow margins.
Her opponent Angie Paccione (D) has not lit anyone on fire. But she is a strong candidate putting in the effort. In some respects this will depend on who does a better job on the mechanics of running, using their money most effectively, etc. The odds are good for Paccione though because both Bush and BWB are hurting Musgrave while in her last two elections being a Republican helped Musgrave.
Bottom line is that Paccione should win this based on the advantage this year in being a Democrat. And the double advantage of being one in Colorado (the BWB issue). And if somehow Paccione can start to inspire a significant chunk of the electorate, then it's all over for Musgrave. And if you want to donate where the money is really needed in Colorado - Angie Paccione.
CD-5 - This is Colorado Springs (James Dobson/Focus on the Family, Air Force Academy, lots of retired military) and Joel Hefley retired here. So this should be a walk for the Republicans. And it is still likely to be Republican. But, there are things short of the dead girl/live boy issue that can cause problems.
There was a large number of credible candidates in the Republican primary for this seat. Whoever won then had the seat for life so this was the one chance for everyone running. Because of this split, it didn't take a large percentage to win. Doug Lamborn (R) won. But he did so by having the most vicious campaign (Colorado tends to have more positive campaigns than most states) and with mostly out of state money.
Because there were 5 candidates with a good chance, the primary meant the power blocs behind 4 of them would be unhappy with the results. But since most of Lamborn's support came from out of the state, he has almost every politico upset with him. The dirty campaign has added to that. And Hefley's anointed successor (a member of his congressional staff) came in a close second and that had Hefley upset.
The end result is a lot of leading Republicans in Colorado Springs, including Hefley, have come out publicly and said they will not vote for Lamborn. Hefley even publicly toyed with the idea of running as a write-in candidate. So you have the Republican leadership telling the voters that not voting, or even voting Democrat (wink-wink) is fine in this case.
Facing Lamborn is Jay Fawcett (D) who is ex-military. And a large chunk of the electorate in Colorado Springs in ex-military. CD-5 is still a long shot for the Democrats. But it's a possibility. And more than a 1 or 2% one. Especially with the BWB issue also depressing the Republican vote. This seat is proof of why Howard Dean's effort to challenge the Republicans everywhere will work. Because for N cases like this, a percentage will be won by the Democratic candidate.
If you like funding long shots that have a credible chance - Jay Fawcett is your man. And if he wins, a "safe Republican" seat will be Democratic for some time.
CD-7 is probably the seat most likely to go from Republican to Democrat. This was BWB's seat before he gave it up for his futile bid for the governorship. And he first won it by a very small number of votes. It is a very evenly divided district.
Nothing major coming out of this race so far. Both candidates are doing the normal things and I think, waiting until after Labor Day to poor it on. So we will have to wait and see. But assuming neither makes any big mistakes, I think Perlmutter(D) will beat O'Donnell(R) because this is an open seat in an open district and between Bush and BWB, that means a Democratic victory. If you want to make a contribution where the Democratic candidate probably has it, but it is a close race, Perlmutter can definitely use the funds.
State races. First the easy one. For Attorney General John Suthers (R) will win against Fern O'Brien(D) as no one has ever heard of Fern before this race.
Treasurer is Cary Kennedy(D) against Mark Hillman(R) and is dead even. This is a lot like CD-7 in that nothing much is happening yet. The Republicans have an advantage here both because the present treasurer Mike Coffman(R) is well respected and because this office tends to go Republican (the old wives tale that Republicans are better stewards of the money). And Bush will have less effect here because it's a state office.
I also think a lot of Republicans who can't vote for BWB for governor will want some statewide representation and this is the obvious place to vote. So who knows for this race. I think it is totally dependent on the campaign each candidate runs.
Secretary of State is Mike Coffman(R), the respected state treasurer against Ken Gordon(D) the respected majority leader of the state senate. Again an even race. However, while Mike Coffman is doing a good job campaigning, Ken Gordon seems to be AWOL. If Ken Gordon starts campaigning, then it's an open race. If he stays AWOL, then Coffman has it. And to be honest, I think either would clearly do an outstanding job as Secretary of State.
Finally there are the state house and senate races. In 2004 the Democrats won back control of both the house and senate (if the rest of the country would campaign like Colorado Democrats we would have won the presidency and both federal houses in 2004). Without going in to races, between BWB and Bush (and again it's more BWB for the state seats), the Democrats will pick up a couple more seats.
Best case: 6/7 congressional seats, Governor and two statewide offices, and increased control of the state house and senate.
Likely case: 5/7 congressional seats, Governor, and increased control of the state house and senate.
So there you have it from a state that voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004. It looks very very good for the Democratic party. If we can do it here, then the rest of the country should be able to pull it off too.
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