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    <title>Liberal and Loving It</title>
    
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/" />
    <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:weblog-103507</id>
    <updated>2008-08-17T22:32:46-06:00</updated>
    
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    <link rel="self" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/LiberalAndLovingIt" type="application/atom+xml" /><entry>
        <title>Improving the economy - Colorado Style</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/improving-the-e.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/improving-the-e.html" thr:count="1" thr:updated="2008-08-20T04:23:14-06:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-54330970</id>
        <published>2008-08-17T22:32:46-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-17T22:32:56-06:00</updated>
        <summary>let's start with this tidbit from Jared Bernstein But tax policy can only offset the disconnect; it can't repair it. For that you need robust job creation, restraints on capital excesses, deep infrastructure investment, single-payer health care, and long-term energy...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>let's start with this tidbit from <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-bernstein/poverty-income-and-health_b_119437.html">Jared Bernstein</a> </p><blockquote><p>But tax policy can only offset the disconnect; it can't repair it. For that you need robust job creation, restraints on capital excesses, deep infrastructure investment, single-payer health care, and long-term energy policy with job-creating investments in green tech and alternative energy sources.</p></blockquote><p>If we wait for Washington we're going to be waiting a long time for some of this. If we get our okole in gear here in Colorado, we can boost our economy - and do it quickly.</p>

<p>So here's what I think we need to do here, as quickly as possible, in the upcoming legislative session. If the Governor and the legislature rolls up their sleves and says they will complete these items, we could be starting a nice growth curve by summer. </p>

<ol><li>Pass a sensible, comprehensive transportation bill that is improving our infrastructure as quickly as can be efficiently done. </li>

<li>Figure out how to make us a carbon neutral net electricity exporter within 6 years. This provides major benefits not only from the power generation but it will lock us in as the center of green energy in the country. </li>

<li>Make healthcare available to all and provided directly (not through an employer). This both solves the healthcare crisis and makes businesses more efficient. (Maybe the answer is requiring all insurance companies to offer a basic HMO to families at a price that can't exceed by more than 10% the best price they offer any company.) </li>

<li>Fix TABOR! </li>

<li>Figure out what we are going to do for transportation - rail, electric cars, etc. We need to address congeston, moving beyond oil, everything. </li>

<li>Fix our K-12 schools. BVSD is failing 30% of their students. DPS it's over 50%. We cannot succeed as a society if this many students are not given the fundamental skills necessary to succeed. </li>

<li>Fix Higher-Ed. A bachelors degree is now the minimum needed to have a decent shot in life. We need to first work to get all students through college (not just high school), and second have Higher-Ed be free just as K-12 is</li></ol>

<p>Yes the above is a substantial list. But I think it is eminently doable. And the alternative is what? That we punt on one of the above? Where will we be then? </p>

<p>These are also issues that will have the support of the vast majority of the residents of this state. Yes people will argue on the details. But the basic concepts will have wide support. </p>

<p>Good list? Bad? Missing anything?</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Everything's going well, so lets fuck it up</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/everythings-goi.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/everythings-goi.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-54284974</id>
        <published>2008-08-16T12:55:26-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-16T13:01:47-06:00</updated>
        <summary>Colorado has a pretty good business climate, from the perspective of both business and labor. Is it perfect? No. But it runs pretty well. Companies are able to operate and succeed. Unemployment is a bit lower here than elsewhere, there...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="coloradans for responsible reform" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="colorado" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="initiative 76" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="just cause initiative" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Colorado has a pretty good business climate, from the perspective of both business and labor. Is it perfect? No. But it runs pretty well. Companies are able to operate and succeed. Unemployment is a bit lower here than elsewhere, there are a lot of well paying jobs, and labor strife is pretty minimal.</p>

<p>Most of the effort here is that of businesses going on about their business. And the bottom line is profit for the owners and salaries for the workers all come out of that effort so the concentration on actually working means there's more for everyone. Yes, there is always a tension between company and worker. There is always a tension between union and executives. There should be.</p>

<p>So let's look at the upcoming ballot initiatives being proposed. There's bad ones on both sides but lets start with the worst one. <strong>The </strong><a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Colorado_Initiative_76_%282008%29"><strong>Just Cause Initiative</strong></a><strong> has the potential to inflict more damage on this state than TABOR, and to do so rapidly.</strong> This will destroy parts of the economy, and the jobs that existed in them. It is a bullet aimed at the heart of Colorado's economy. Lets take a look at this train-wreck, here's the title:</p><blockquote><p>An amendment to the Colorado constitution concerning cause for employee discharge or suspension, and, in connection therewith, requiring an employer to establish and document just cause for the discharge or suspension of a full-time employee; defining "just cause" to mean specified types of employee misconduct and substandard job performance, the filing of bankruptcy by the employer, or documented economic circumstances that directly and adversely affect the employer; exempting from the just cause requirement business entities that employ fewer than twenty employees, nonprofit organizations that employ fewer than one thousand employees, governmental entities, and employees who are covered by a collective bargaining agreement that requires just cause for discharge or suspension; <strong>allowing an employee who believes he or she was discharged or suspended without just cause to file a civil action in state district court; allowing a court that finds an employee’s discharge or suspension to be in violation of this amendment to award reinstatement in the employee's former job, back wages, damages, or any combination thereof; and allowing the court to award attorneys fees to the prevailing party.</strong> </p></blockquote><p>The honeybee is a small part of our environmental system and yet very critical to the entire system. In the Denver/Boulder area we have a vibrant high-tech industry, including a gigantic number of start-ups. This area actually has a higher percentage of high-tech jobs than Silicon Valley (Silicon Valley has a larger total number).</p>

<p>A key component of this system is all the start-ups. Sun located here because of all these businesses. Conoco-Phillips for the same. We are becoming a center for renewable energy research in large part due to these start-ups. To have a future with these kind of high-paying jobs that in turn generate more jobs (all job growth in the U.S. comes from small companies), we need these companies.</p>

<p>Now lets look at start-ups. Most of them fail. Of the ones that succeed, most of them come very close to failing several times before they finally make it. It is a very tough Darwinian environment where you have to be very good, react very quickly, and have an idea that people actually will pay for once it's delivered. And the people who put money into these ideas have to look for the ones where the odds, while bad, are better than any of the other opportunities.</p>

<p>So what does this initiative do to start-up companies? It kills them. Here's why (speaking from personal experience):</p>

<ol><li>I have fired people who are competent. Because competent is not sufficient, to survive in the start-up world you need people who are incredibly good (the rule of thumb is the top 5%). Having to hang on to people who are average (or god forbid mediocre) means we get beat by another company that <strong>is</strong> staffed with superstars. </li>

<li>I have fired superstars. Because how well a team works together has a larger impact on success than the skills of any individual. So someone who is the best programmer, but does not play well with others, is actually a detriment to the team as a whole. </li>

<li>I have made mistakes. In a start-up you have to make decisions quickly. By definition some of those decisions are wrong. But if you make sure on every decision, once again you're out of business. So at times I have certainly fired people who were competent, and would have done a good job, but I made a bad decision. </li>

<li>Lets say they are clearly incompetent. We hired (on contract) a sales team who's job was to call leads. And they were required to work at least 20 hours/week. So when we ended the contract and ended up in court as to was it "for cause," even though the sales team admitted they had made a total of 1 call over 2 months and had worked under 20 hours some weeks, the judge still found it was not for cause (and we had to pay for an additional 30 days of time). So even if someone is clearly incompetent, that doesn't mean a judge will agree.</li></ol>

<p>So what does the above do to startup companies (which grow to over 20 people quite quickly)? They will get saddled with incompetents. And that will have a devastating effect on morale as the others then have to work even harder to make up for these boat-anchors. A successful start-up is a group of people that are putting their heart and soul into making a long-shot a success. This kills that drive.</p>

<p>And so what happens to the venture capital money? Venture capitalists aren't stupid - that money all goes out of state to places where a company can fire those they need to fire. For really good ideas they will tell people that if they move to any other state, they will fund them. Which is ironical since we presently have people moving to Colorado for the start-up environment here.</p>

<p>In short, rather than building on the Silicon Valley we presently have here and possibly becoming the top place in the country for renewable energy start-ups, this will stop virtually all future start-ups and piss away what we presently have. This puts Colorado on the road to an economy where the only businesses here are ones that must be here such as retail. For any company that can locate elsewhere, it will.</p>

<p>My company competes world-wide. We derive no advantage from our geographical location. Nor do we derive an advantage from being inside the U.S. We have competitors located in both China and India and their location also has no impact on who wins sales. We successfully compete against these other companies while paying higher salaries, health insurance, more in taxes, etc. But we can't compete with this proposed albatross around our neck.</p>

<p>And here's the kicker, if we go out of business, there's no jobs. <strong>Even if this union led wet-dream public school teacher level of job protection is imposed, when a company shuts down, all the jobs are gone.</strong> So if you impose iron-clad job protection for all employees at a 55 employee start-up, you have not protected those 55 people from being fired - you have destroyed those 55 jobs.</p>

<p>In addition, this does not protect the job, it protects the bozo presently holding the job. When we fire someone, it's rarely a downsizing, it's because we need someone better. So the job still exists, it's just we will offer it to someone else. <strong>So this initiative does not protect jobs</strong> per-se, it merely protects the person presently in that job who is inadequate for the position.</p>

<p>Ok, so this initiative, if passed, will drive jobs out of state, destroy the high-tech business environment built up at great effort here, and devastate our economy. Because of how damaging it will be, hopefully it will fail and then we're done - right?</p>

<p>No. Even if this fails, it has the potential to cause quite a bit of damage this election year due to blow-back. My plan was to donate the maximum to Betsy Markey and Joe Whitcomb. And probably to Joe Rice and Morgan Carroll if their races were looking close. All gone. I donate to Act-Blue candidates every month. No more. There's needs vs preferences. I need to keep my company in business. I have put a ton of money and effort into it and I have a lot of employees who depend on our success for their monthly paycheck. That responsibility comes before my preference in a number of legislative races. My company will survive another 2 years of Marilyn Musgrave. It probably won't survive this initiative.</p>

<p>I'm just one person. But I'm not the only one. Virtually every liberal/progressive/Democrat/etc in the high-tech industry will be devoting some, if not all, of their time and effort this election to defeating this proposed disaster. Because like me, while they would prefer to see progressive candidates win in November, they're more concerned about having a job after November.</p>

<p>And in every single high-tech company there is an example where you can say "imagine if we could not have fired *****" and everyone there will shudder at the thought. This initiative does not appeal to those who are good at their job, it appeals to the marginally competent. Every progressive who looks at this and shudders at it's effect, that's one less person that will be out there working for a progressive candidate because their time and money will be focused on defeating this.</p>

<p>It also means people like me are being driven into the arms of the business interests opposing this (you know - the bad guys - Republicans). We might find other common ground, such as taking on the teacher's unions in order to fix the public schools here. That would be a good thing for the state, but a bad thing for all the unionized incompetent school teachers.</p>

<p>In other words, this initiative is a horrible idea, not just for businesses, competent employees, Democratic candidates, and the state economy, but potentially also harmful for the unions themselves. It's amazing but it look like <a href="http://www.protectcoloradosfuture.org/"><del>Protect</del>FuckColoardo'sFuture</a> has managed to propose an initiative that causes major harm, while providing nothing positive.</p>

<p>As to those that will say this is just a response to Amendments 47 &amp; 49, when someone else is drowning kittens your response should not be "well the we're going to drown puppies." <strong>A pox on both your houses!</strong> (What we really need is a well funded progressive group dedicated to a NO on all these proposals. I'd much prefer to donate to that rather than Coloradans for Responsible Reform which is staying silent on 47/49.)</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Election Results</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/election-result.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/election-result.html" thr:count="4" thr:updated="2008-08-12T22:07:43-06:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-54097896</id>
        <published>2008-08-12T13:15:17-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-13T07:22:57-06:00</updated>
        <summary>I will pull numbers from the County Clerk sites as they post them and provide totals below. Kudos to Boulder, Broomfield, Jefferson, &amp; Weld counties - they already have their numbers up. (Maybe Hillary Hall is finally getting her office...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="cindy carlisle" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="election results" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="jared polis" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="joan fitz-gerald" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="rollie heath" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="will shafroth" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>I will pull numbers from the County Clerk sites as they post them and provide totals below. Kudos to Boulder, Broomfield, Jefferson, &amp; Weld counties - they already have their numbers up. (Maybe Hillary Hall is finally getting her office operating smoothly.)</p>

<p>Most impressive reporting - Weld (first out) and JeffCo - both have updates about every 20 minutes. And hat tip to Clear Creek for completing their counting the quickest (all 477 votes).</p>

<p>Most impressive Clerk's web page - JeffCo by a mile. Most suck-o Grand (it's a PDF), and Clear Creek &amp; Gilpin (they have nothing).</p>

<p>Eagle &amp; Clear Creek told me that they don't know where they will post on their website and Gilpin isn't posting (but will fax me). Come on guys, what century are you living in? Eagle County Clerk &amp; Recorder wins biggest doofus award - 11:30 and still nothing reported.</p>

<p>Update 13: <a href="http://www.squarestate.net/diary/6361/primary-night-election-returns-open-thread">Joan Fitz-Gerald just conceeded</a>.</p>

<p>Update 18: I think this is 100% for everyone</p>

<table bordercolor="#999999" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" width="100%" border="2"><tbody><tr><td><strong>County</strong></td>

<td colspan="2"><strong>Joan Fitz-Gerald </strong></td>

<td colspan="2"><strong>Jared Polis</strong> </td>

<td colspan="2"><strong>Will Shafroth</strong></td></tr>

<tr><td />

<td align="right">vote</td>

<td align="right">%</td>

<td align="right">vote</td>

<td align="right">%</td>

<td align="right">vote</td>

<td align="right">%</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.co.adams.co.us/index.cfm?d=standard&amp;b=1&amp;c=9&amp;s=243&amp;p=1021">Adams</a></td>

<td align="right">4,779</td>

<td align="right">38</td>

<td align="right">5,955</td>

<td align="right">47</td>

<td align="right">1,983</td>

<td align="right">16</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.bouldercounty.org/clerk/elections/DemocraticCandidatesPreliminaryResults%20for%20the%202008PrimaryElection.htm">Boulder</a></td>

<td align="right">8,082</td>

<td align="right">36</td>

<td align="right">8,830</td>

<td align="right">39</td>

<td align="right">5,809</td>

<td align="right">26</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.broomfield.org/elections/ResultsPrimary2008.shtml">Broomfield</a></td>

<td align="right">1,208</td>

<td align="right">35</td>

<td align="right">1,751</td>

<td align="right">51</td>

<td align="right">475</td>

<td align="right">14</td></tr>

<tr><td>Clear Creek (via phone)</td>

<td align="right">380</td>

<td align="right">80</td>

<td align="right">54</td>

<td align="right">11</td>

<td align="right">43</td>

<td align="right">9</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.eaglecounty.us/uploadedfiles/2008PrimaryElectionResults.pdf">Eagle</a></td>

<td align="right">457</td>

<td align="right">34</td>

<td align="right">573</td>

<td align="right">42</td>

<td align="right">319</td>

<td align="right">24</td></tr>

<tr><td>Gilpin (via fax)</td>

<td align="right">225</td>

<td align="right">55</td>

<td align="right">134</td>

<td align="right">33</td>

<td align="right">47</td>

<td align="right">12</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://co.grand.co.us/online_services/links/election/2008%20primary%20election.pdf">Grand</a></td>

<td align="right">307</td>

<td align="right">47</td>

<td align="right">238</td>

<td align="right">36</td>

<td align="right">109</td>

<td align="right">17</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/Jefferson/7250/8031/en/summary.html">Jefferson</a></td>

<td align="right">1,664</td>

<td align="right">46</td>

<td align="right">1,463</td>

<td align="right">41</td>

<td align="right">478</td>

<td align="right">13</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.co.summit.co.us/Elections/2007/2007_coordinatedInfo.html">Summit</a></td>

<td align="right">552</td>

<td align="right">49</td>

<td align="right">272</td>

<td align="right">24</td>

<td align="right">293</td>

<td align="right">26</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.co.weld.co.us/election-results/">Weld</a></td>

<td align="right">527</td>

<td align="right">39</td>

<td align="right">672</td>

<td align="right">50</td>

<td align="right">152</td>

<td align="right">11</td></tr>

<tr><td><strong>totals</strong></td>

<td align="right">18,181</td>

<td align="right">38</td>

<td align="right">19,942</td>

<td align="right">42</td>

<td align="right">9,702</td>

<td align="right">20</td></tr>

<tr><td colspan="14" /></tr></tbody></table>

<p><strong>SD-18</strong></p>

<p>Congratulations to Rollie Heath - I know you will do a great job representing us. And condolances to Cindy Carlisle, you put your heart &amp; soul into this race.</p>

<table bordercolor="#999999" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" width="100%" border="2"><tbody><tr><td><strong>County</strong></td>

<td colspan="2"><strong>Cindy Carlisle</strong></td>

<td colspan="2"><strong>Rollie Heath</strong> </td></tr>

<tr><td />

<td align="right">vote</td>

<td align="right">%</td>

<td align="right">vote</td>

<td align="right">%</td></tr>

<tr><td><a href="http://www.bouldercounty.org/clerk/elections/DemocraticCandidatesPreliminaryResults%20for%20the%202008PrimaryElection.htm">Boulder</a> - 85%</td>

<td align="right">5,898</td>

<td align="right">44</td>

<td align="right">7,623</td>

<td align="right">56</td></tr>

<tr><td colspan="14" /></tr></tbody></table></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>The primary is this Tuesday</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/the-primary-is.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/the-primary-is.html" thr:count="2" thr:updated="2008-08-12T17:59:01-06:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53956556</id>
        <published>2008-08-08T22:19:49-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-08T22:19:59-06:00</updated>
        <summary>How can I tell? Because the number of visitors to this blog is climbing exponentially. Traffic here is not based on what I write but almost entirely on the voting cycle. Large bump when mail ballots first arrive, giant bump...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>How can I tell? Because the number of visitors to this blog is climbing exponentially. Traffic here is not based on what I write but almost entirely on the voting cycle. Large bump when mail ballots first arrive, giant bump as we approach election day.</p>

<p>So if this is your first time here, welcome. '08 election resources are over to the left. Google searching is over to the right. Links to numerous <a href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/cd-2-election-r.html">CD-2 election resources</a> is your best bet for the CD-2 election. You may also want to read <a href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/02/my-vote-at-the.html">why I support Jared Polis</a> and <a href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/06/my-vote-in-sd-1.html">why I support Cindy Carlisle</a>.</p>

<p>And finally, my guesses as to the final vote in the various primaries in the state:</p>

<p>CD-2<br /><strong>Jared Polis - 46%</strong><br />Joan Fitz-Gerald - 40%<br />Will Shafroth - 14%</p>

<p>SD-18<br /><strong>Cindy Carlisle - 54%</strong><br />Rollie Heath - 46%</p>

<p>CD-5<br /><strong>Doug Lamborn - 38%</strong><br />Bent Rayburn - 31%<br />Jeff Crank - 31%</p>

<p>CD-6<br /><strong>Mike Coffman - 48%</strong><br />Wil Armstrong - 29%<br />Ted Harvey - 12%<br />Steve Ward - 11%</p>

<p>Oh, and the combination of Jared and Cindy will annoy the heck out of the Boulder Political Elite. How dare the voters not follow their lead. So we not only will get thebest two candidates, but we also have that benefit from their wins.</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>The Letter</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/the-letter.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/the-letter.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53788212</id>
        <published>2008-08-05T12:40:22-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-05T12:42:42-06:00</updated>
        <summary>For those that want to see the infamous letter from Joan Fitz-Gerald to the Summit County Board of Commissioners, here is a copy I received from a source I trust. Download fitzgerald_letter_to_summit_county.pdf</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="cyanide" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="joan fitz-gerald" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="mining" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>For those that want to see <a href="http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/05/fitz-gerald-draws-fire-on-mining/">the infamous letter from Joan Fitz-Gerald to the Summit County Board of Commissioners</a>, here is a copy I received from a source I trust.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/files/fitzgerald_letter_to_summit_county.pdf">Download fitzgerald_letter_to_summit_county.pdf</a></p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>groundswell</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/groundswell.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/groundswell.html" thr:count="1" thr:updated="2008-08-13T12:33:28-06:00" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53682154</id>
        <published>2008-08-02T20:45:41-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-02T20:45:50-06:00</updated>
        <summary>groundswell is the latest hot marketing book in the high-tech community (and I believe in a lot of the rest of the business community). The book is Forrester Research's look at what Web 2.0 means for business. What's fascinating for...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="groundswell" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p><a href="http://www.forrester.com/Groundswell/index.html">groundswell</a> is the latest hot marketing book in the high-tech community (and I believe in a lot of the rest of the business community).</p>

<p>The book is Forrester Research's look at what Web 2.0 means for business. What's fascinating for everyone here is it's look at how people use Web 2.0 for their political information.</p>

<p>For those wondering what Web 2.0 is, the technical answer is social technologies like blogs (that's us!) social networks (like MySpace), YouTube, twitter, forums, wikis, etc. </p>

<p>But the best way to look at it is in terms of the relationship between companies, their customers, future customers, and others. What Web 2.0 does is turn it in to a 2-way conversation. This is radically new to business. </p>

<p>In the past a business owned a 1-way conversation about it's product. Marketing put together programs and those all went from company to the market. Even info from the customer was tightly controlled by the company - the company would select the questions for a survey. </p>

<p>So how does this impact politics? Well Forrester brings up the recent example of <a href="http://blogs.forrester.com/groundswell/2008/07/barack-obama-vs.html">what happened on Obama's site</a> after he reversed himself on FISA. The largest group now on MyBarackObama is the one opposed to that switch. He's learned the downside of that 2-way communication. </p>

<p>But it's more than 2-way communication, it's many-way communication. If it was just everyone able to talk back to the company or politician then it's not that big a change. But what we have now is N-way communication where everyone is communicating with everyone. </p>

<p>When done well, it is an incredibly powerful mechanism. And Obama has just scratched the surface with his effort, but it's still worlds beyond McCain. We'll see significant advances in this over the next 10 - 20 years every election. </p>

<p>Is this important? Yes. It's going to decide elections. And Democrats have an advantage here. </p>

<p><img src="http://bp0.blogger.com/_6PrFElsp8CI/SAeTt3J8s1I/AAAAAAAAAJw/Phjng44kVzk/s400/groundswell_figure_3-8.jpg" /> </p>

<p>Ok, what are we looking at? This shows how active voters are in 6 categories of social activities on the web. If one of those bars was at 100% it would mean every voter in the country was involved in that activity. </p>

<p>The white bar is the average for adults in the U.S. for that activity across all interests from eBay to celebrity gossip to yes, politics. </p>

<p>Look first at the bottom "Inactives." The inverse of that number is the percentage of people using web 2.0 for politics. So 60% of Democrats and over 50% of Republican and independents fall into one or more of the 5 preceeding categories. </p>

<p>Note: Independents in the Forrester numbers are people who actually vote a split ticket, it is not based on registration. So independents here are the ones who decide the election in the close races. </p>

<p>Ok, so we Dems are more active. And you see this in all 5 basic activities where Democrats have an edge. This means more posts, more comments, and even more people lurking. Content is king in web 2.0. And viewing is a close second. </p>

<p>What is even more interesting however is that over 50% of independents are using web 2.0 for part or all of their political news. Keep in mind web 2.0 is not reading candidate websites, news media websites, etc. None of that (outside of forums, blogs, etc) falls in this category. </p>

<p>Over 50% of Independents are using blogs, YouTube, forums, etc. for their political information. 10% of them are pulling in RSS feeds (Collectors), etc to get a stream of info. This is why Allen's "Macaca moment" killed him - a tremendous number of voters are interacting with this stuff. </p>

<p>To shift to local news, what does this mean for this blog? Well, it's not great for interactivity (so come on people - comment!). But it is a good source of local politcal news so it provides well for Collectors and Spectators. And this shows in the site stats which are totally driven by the election calender.</p>

<p>So we're a small part of the web 2.0 political community here in Boulder. But we probably get a significant percentage of the 60% of local voters coming here occasionally. It doesn't mean what I write convinces them - but hey, at least they're reading it. I'm happy with that.</p>

<p>To everyone reading this - thank you. (And please leave a comment occasionally.)</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>How to fight the Republican gas price attack</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/how-to-fight-th.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/08/how-to-fight-th.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53676314</id>
        <published>2008-08-02T16:04:57-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-08-02T16:20:11-06:00</updated>
        <summary>It looks like the main issue Republicans are going to hammer Democrats over in this election is oil prices. This strikes a lot of Democrats as ineffective since the fault for the present crisis is clearly due to Republican ineptitude....</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="energy policy" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>It looks like the main issue Republicans are going to hammer Democrats over in this election is oil prices. This strikes a lot of Democrats as ineffective since the fault for the present crisis is clearly due to Republican ineptitude.</p>

<p>That would be a mistake. As <a href="http://news.politicswest.com/news/ci_10061649">the Denver Post reports</a>:</p><blockquote dir="ltr"><p>"Americans just want something done about this problem. . . . They don't want to go back over what's already happened, whether the Bush administration has screwed things up," said Karlyn Bowman, an expert on public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. </p>

<p>"I think that public has been rethinking the energy issue. You're definitely seeing some movement in the direction of more drilling," she said. </p></blockquote><p dir="ltr">In other words, we're in a world of hurt right now and people want solutions right now. Discussing who's fault it is is not just irrelevant to the problem at hand, but is wasting time that could be spent addressing the issue.</p>

<p dir="ltr">So what to do? Well one key piece is clearly bringing forth a credible "Manhattan Project" type plan to bring us to energy independence (and drastically reduced carbon emissions) as quickly as possible. And this must include a plan to move all new vehicles off of gas within the next 2 years. The immediacy of that shift starting would have an immediate impact on oil prices as the oil producing countries would then be strongly incented to reduce prices to the level that the issue loses it's urgency.</p>

<p dir="ltr">Ok, that's all well and good. It is actually addressing the problem and all of the policy wonks in the country will be thrilled. Unfortunately, while the above helps in the political discussion, it's not a home run. It's barely a single. It's not sexy, it's complicated, and it doesn't have a giant impact today.</p>

<p dir="ltr">So what if we add this little zinger to the equation. According to <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Business/WireStory?id=5492079&amp;page=2">ABC News</a>:</p><blockquote dir="ltr"><p dir="ltr">In the most recent quarter, Exxon Mobil said it spent $8 billion buying back stock, versus $7 billion on capital and exploration expenditures.</p></blockquote><p dir="ltr">What if the Democrats proposed a law that restricts stock buy-backs at the oil companies to 5% of the amount the spend on exploration (and alternative energy production)? And in addition point out that there are enough approved leases, off-shore as well as on-shore, for the oil companies to be drilling tomorrow if they invested all their profits in doing so.</p>

<p dir="ltr">The beauty of this approach is it pushes the drilling solution back on to the oil companies. Plus it makes the Republicans look like shills for the oil companies rather than people trying to find a solution. </p>

<p dir="ltr">Because how do they counteract such a proposal? It won't fly politically to say that Congress needs to do twice as much so that the oil companies can spend half their profits on increasing their stock price instead of increasing the supply of oil.</p>

<p dir="ltr">I think putting this proposal out there would destroy this as an issue for the Republicans. Plus, while it will take some discussion to determine if it's a good idea, it's definitely worth considering.</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>My coffee with Joe (Rice)</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/my-coffee-with.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/my-coffee-with.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53327836</id>
        <published>2008-07-27T10:20:04-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-07-27T10:24:02-06:00</updated>
        <summary>First off, we have too many elected officials named Joe. Ok, on to Joe Rice. I had coffee with him Friday morning and he is another example of the incredible depth of the Democratic bench here in Colorado. Joe is...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="colorado legislature" />
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="joe rice" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>First off, we have too many elected officials named Joe. Ok, on to Joe Rice. I had coffee with him Friday morning and he is another example of the incredible depth of the Democratic bench here in Colorado.</p>

<p>Joe is that rare beast in politics where he is there to make the system better - and that's it. He does not view this as a stepping stone to higher office. He does not view this as a way to impose his philosophy on others. He does not view this as a way to get some grand program implemented (or stopped).</p>

<p>Virtually the entire conversation was about two things; first finding where the legislature can help people. The law he is most proud of is the cold case law. And as he explained it, it seems to me that the gigantic value of that law is it tells the family &amp; friends of the murder victims that they are not forgotten. And that is an important thing. He also talked about a number of others including removing the requirement of fund-raisers to collect sales tax (apparently my daughter's soccer teams were violating the law when they made $50.00 selling cookies).</p>

<p>Second was listening to constituents. If someone emails or calls Joe, he emails or calls them back. If a group invites him to speak, he's there. He does town-halls all the time. And he walks his district, hitting every door. This is a tremendous effort but it is invaluable for our democracy. Our state reps are probably our most accessible elected official - if they are willing to put in the effort. </p>

<p>Joe knows what the people in his district want, and he discusses those topics with them. He may not always agree with them. When he agrees he may not work on that particular item. But he listens and discusses it - and that is invaluable in terms of the voters feeling that their government is responsive.</p>

<p>One sign of this, Joe says that when people are testifying on bills half the committee members are not there and many of the remaining ones are on their laptops or talking to others. And you have people there who have never testified before who have come down to the capitol for this one bill. He always pays attention to the person speaking so they feel that the legislature is listening to them.</p>

<p>I think this is what makes Joe special, he respects the voters and he shows it. It shows in his efforts to communicate with them. And it shows in his telling them when he does not agree with them, and why. This is incredibly powerful, not just for Joe but it also brings credit to the institution of the legislature itself.</p>

<p>Diving into some specifics, TABOR barely came up. I mostly listen and occasionally ask a general question so it could be that we just never hit it. But he is the first state legislative member or candidate that I have talked to that did not bring it up as the biggest problem facing the state. (His one discussion of it was if we shifted some taxes by eliminating the business property tax, a TABOR election would probably be required even though the total tax hit would not change.)</p>

<p>I have no idea why this did not come up in our conversation. It may be that the conversation never got there. It may also be that what he has focused on is not impacted by TABOR and therefore it's not central to his efforts. And it may be that he's ok with how it works. (I should have asked him at the end - bad job on my part.) But it is interesting regardless...</p>

<p>He did talk about health-care and energy use. In both cases it was pretty general where he discussed some basics that need to be in place for both, but not detailed specifics or a given approach. I think this is good in that he has some basic requirements he knows we need to meet on both but is not locked in to a specific approach.</p>

<p>On the flip side, I don't think he will be leading either effort. Because if he was, he would have a lot more detail on what all goes in to this. That's fine, we have a part-time legislature we pay a pittance and that means each legislator can, if they are independently wealthy, concentrate on one major issue. But Joe will be there helping craft a solution.</p>

<p>I've talked to a number of state legislators (House &amp; Senate) now and without exception they have all discussed that they need to address health-care and energy in the upcoming session. Now maybe they're the only ones who think this way, but that's unlikely. So my guess is the three biggies in '09 will be transportation, health-care, &amp; energy.</p>

<p>My final question to him was if he was told that he could bring forward any bill and it would be immediately passed and signed by the governor, what would it be. And his answer was a comprehensive transportation bill. His reasoning was that it is vitally important for the state, yet never gets the attention it requires.</p>

<p>He talked about a fire concerning a wooden bridge where two firefighters died because the bridge was wooden (they would have lived if it was steel). He sees the direct specific impact we have due to not properly handling transportation. He also discussed how the gas tax which funds all of this has been the same amount since 1970(?). So we're funding transportation expenses with drastically reduced revenues.</p>

<p>I think this goes back to Joe's root purpose which is to make the government work well for the people. Transportation was clearly the biggest failure this past session, where the legislature - could of, should of, but didn't. I would not be surprised to see Joe take a lead on this, both for what should be funded now and fixing the funding mechanism for transportation.</p>

<p>All in all, a really impressive legislator - quiet &amp; effective.</p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>Will Shafroth - just say no</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/will-shafroth-.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/will-shafroth-.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53203114</id>
        <published>2008-07-24T20:51:29-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-07-24T20:59:58-06:00</updated>
        <summary>In my discussion of the 3 candidates running for CD-2 I stated that all three are really good candidates and that we would be happy with any of the three. In that discussion I said the following about Will Shafroth:...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="will shafroth" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>In <a href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/02/crystal-gray--1.html">my discussion of the 3 candidates running for CD-2</a> I stated that all three are really good candidates and that we would be happy with any of the three. In that discussion I said the following about Will Shafroth:</p><blockquote dir="ltr"><p><strong>Will is Mark Udall redux.</strong> Will will perform the blocking &amp; tackling of being an effective representative for our district. He will do the most for our district and the residents here from bringing home the bacon to constituent services. And he clearly will concentrate on environmental issues. It doesn't get the spotlight but this is exactly the job we need most representatives performing.</p></blockquote><p>The statement is still true. But it's no longer a compliment. Mark Udall has shown that he is willing to take any position, pander any issue, and piss all over the constitution to get elected. His most recent "indistinguishable from a wing-nut Republican" action was his vote for the FISA legislation.</p>

<p>So how is Will running? Every piece of his recent direct mailers has stressed how he will work with Republicans. How he will look for the compromises that the Republicans find acceptable. This is the centerpiece of his campaign.</p>

<p>Well, give him credit for being honest.</p>

<p>But the way the Republicans compromise in Washington right now is to let the Democrats make a few inconsequential changes, and then pass the Republican bill. This country is in a world of hurt. We need to undo the damage the Republicans have inflicted on us. And that won't happen if we work to craft legislation that these same bozos find acceptable.</p>

<p>Joan &amp; Jared are both good candidates (I prefer Jared). Both will work diligently to turn our government around so it is working to help everyone instead of just the ultra-wealthy. <strong>Will won't.</strong></p></div>
</content>


    </entry>
    <entry>
        <title>My breakfast with Diana</title>
        <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/my-breakfast-wi.html" />
        <link rel="replies" type="text/html" href="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2008/07/my-breakfast-wi.html" thr:count="0" />
        <id>tag:typepad.com,2003:post-53120000</id>
        <published>2008-07-23T10:12:12-06:00</published>
        <updated>2008-07-23T10:13:29-06:00</updated>
        <summary>We have a number of reasons for the Democratic resurgence here in Colorado. But I think there is one major reason that is never discussed, the large number of great politicos we have. Especially when compared to total embarrassments like...</summary>
        <author>
            <name>David Thielen</name>
        </author>
        
        <category scheme="http://sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" term="diana degette" />
        
<content type="xhtml" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>We have a number of reasons for the Democratic resurgence here in Colorado. But I think there is one major reason that is never discussed, the large number of great politicos we have. Especially when compared to total embarrassments like Marilyn Musgrave &amp; Doug Bruce. Quality is a very powerful argument in the political contest.</p>

<p>Remember those cartoons where there is an incredibly complicate machine and there is a person constantly working to keep it running, oiling it here, adjusting a dial there, taking a hammer to it elsewhere. The constant ongoing effort to keep it running. Well think of the machine as the federal government and that person working to keep it running is Congresswoman DeGette.</p>

<p>She talked about a number of things, but the underlying thread through all of this was making government work well for people. What should be improved, how can it be improved, making the change happen. It's a difficult under-appreciated job that is absolutely essential. (Maybe we should only elect moms as representatives as they already live that life raising their kids.)</p>

<p>She also sees that it takes a lot of time to accomplish anything in Congress. Some efforts she has been working for 9+ years. And she sees going forward that what she takes on can take 9 years from today. She's in there for the long haul, which is key if you are going to get legislation passed. Some reps are there as a stepping stone (anyone think Ed Perlmutter is not going to shoot for something higher in the next 8 years?) while others see what they can accomplish if they are in it for the long haul. Congresswoman DeGette is in it for the long haul. And because of that, she will continue to be effective in getting legislation passed.</p>

<p>She is presently working on major legislation for both consumer safety and food safety. Boring little things that will get no press, but will save many many lives from here forward. (Why is it Paris Hilton gets more press than all of this basic legislation put together?)</p>

<p>I asked here if she was worried about a veto and she was basically flip with her response that we have a new approach, they pass it, Bush vetos it, they override the veto. The way she said this was when she won me over - it was just that it's an extra step, but no big deal. She clearly sees that the emperor has limited power.</p>

<p>She also talked a lot about how not only did Bush take on a lot more power than is good for our government, but that Congress was actively complicit in this shift. It's rare to have a politician own up to what they should have done better - usually they point the finger elsewhere. She talked quite a bit about specifics where Congress should have done it's job, from the PATRIOT act to FISA to a number of other items.</p>

<p>She talked not only about these mistakes, but about how Congress in the next session needs to fix these problems. Clearly she sees this as one of the major jobs of Congress in 2008.</p>

<p>She talked about stems cell research some, but not a lot. It clearly will be a slam dunk come January and she realizes that. So she's just waiting till then (that knowledge again that these things take time) and is very assured it will then pass (it will).</p>

<p>She also made a comment almost in passing that she needs to figure out what will be her major effort once this passes. I think by January everything she has been working diligently on for the last couple of years will be in law. I took how she said this that she does not have anything that strikes her as her next big effort (yet). So if there is something that you think is really important and it will take a major effort over several years to accomplish, it might be a good time to talk to the Congresswoman.</p>

<p>I asked her about her opinion of inherent contempt and she said she did not know what it is. It's interesting that something that has been a major theme on the net for over a year, and is a constitutional prerogative of Congress, is apparently still news to many in Congress. Strange.</p>

<p>She then closed up talking about <a href="http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Sex-Science-and-Stem-Cells/Diana-DeGette/e/9781599214313/?itm=1">her book</a>. The inspiration for it came when she dove in to what drove the Republican war on science and she found that it really came down to a Republican war on sex. (For a party that has David Vitter and Larry Craig to name a few, the Republicans sure are hung up on sex.) I asked her if she's ready for her Daily Show interview and she said yes, then asked if I thought she would get on. My reply was with a book about Republicans and sex, how could they not invite her.</p>

<p>I have a lot of respect for the legislators who just work day in and day out trying to improve the country knowing they will never be the rock star. Because they are the ones that do the vast majority of the work.</p></div>
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